Corn Market Analysis for 7/27/2010
September Corn settled down 1 1/4 at 362 3/4, 6 3/4 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. December Corn closed down 1 at 377. This was 1 up from the low and 6 off the high.
December corn finished marginally lower today after starting the day on a firm note. Nevertheless, the December contract did manage to hold above yesterday’s low throughout the day. Traders said that lower gold and crude oil markets and a modest rally in the dollar kept the pressure on today, along with a relatively favorable weather outlook for the week. Traders said that support came from a lack of sellers in futures and cash markets along with strength in wheat. Some weather forecasts are calling for less rain in the western Corn Belt over the next 5 to 7 days, which will be welcome in a region that has seen saturating rains over the past week, including flood-inducing rains in some areas last weekend. A toxic spill on the Mississippi, north of Memphis, has resulted in a closure of the river below the spill this morning. No word yet on when the river might reopen.
September Rice settled down 0.16 at 10.01, equal to the high and 0.04 up from the low.
Wheat Market Analysis Report for 7/27/2010
September Wheat finished up 5 1/2 at 595, 9 off the high and 12 1/2 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 6 at 627. This was 13 up from the low and 8 off the high.
December wheat traded higher on the day today, although prices retreated from the high established in the first minutes of the day session. That high in turn fell short of the high for the move established last Thursday. Continued dry and hot weather in NW Europe and in Russia continues to buoy the wheat market, according to traders. December wheat posted a modest gain over corn today in light trade by spreaders. There was also fear this morning that declining production forecasts in Russia could bring government intervention into the grain export market in the form of restrictions on export licensing, although officials there have made it clear so far that they have no plans to restrict exports at this time. Past interventions have been made to cool food inflation. The government is currently forecasting inflation into the end of the year at 6%, while some private forecasts are higher.
December Oats ended down 4 1/4 at 258. This was 1/2 up from the low and 7 3/4 off the high.
Soybean Complex Market Commentary for 7/27/2010
August Soybeans finished down 1/4 at 998, 7 off the high and 3 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 1/2 at 965 1/2. This was 3 1/4 up from the low and 7 3/4 off the high.
August Soymeal settled 1.3 higher at 294.5. This was 2.0 off the high and 2.1 up from the low.
August Soybean Oil ended 0.24 lower at 38.56, 0.36 off the high and 0.06 up from the low.
November soybeans finished a little lower today after giving up gains established late in the overnight session and into the start of the day session. Nevertheless, the November contract managed to remain above yesterday’s low throughout the day. December meal posted a fractional gain on the day while December soy oil traded lower. Traders said that the weak tone came on lower crude oil and gold markets, a better than anticipated weather outlook in the Midwest this week and a marginally higher dollar. Cash markets were also on the soft side this morning.
After reading today’s recap,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
This blog is published by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his relatives, or his clients in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a dialogue among those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage. Investing in the commodity futures could result in substantial risk. If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
The daily commentaries provide a review of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a rundown of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day. CME Group provides market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, silver and gold. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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